Kalshi Holds 91% Prediction Market Dominance, Bank of America Report Finds
A new Bank of America report shows Kalshi controls roughly 91% of the regulated U.S. prediction market, with weekly trading volume spiking sharply. The data also puts Crypto.com ahead of Polymarket on market share — a reshuffling that lands just as Polymarket touts a $20 billion valuation. Here is what the numbers mean for LATAM and crypto-native traders moving between platforms.
Kalshi's 91% Prediction Market Dominance, According to Bank of America
A Bank of America report indicates that Kalshi now controls about 91% of the regulated U.S. prediction market, supported by a sharp jump in weekly trading volume. The same data set places Crypto.com's market share ahead of Polymarket's.
For LATAM retail and crypto-native traders, this matters because it changes where liquidity, tighter odds, and faster fills actually live. Headline valuations and total trading volume are not the same thing, and the gap between them is where mispriced contracts — and opportunity — tend to appear.
What happened and why it matters
According to a Bank of America research note circulated in early June 2026 and amplified across financial feeds, Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange based in the United States — accounts for roughly 91% of regulated U.S. prediction market activity. The report highlights an abrupt increase in Kalshi's weekly trading volume rather than a gradual climb. Notably, the same data shows Crypto.com's prediction-market share now exceeding that of Polymarket. The timing is striking: the reshuffling surfaced just as Polymarket was publicizing a reported $20 billion valuation, sharpening the question of who actually dominates the sector by volume versus by headline.
What prediction markets are saying
The core figures here come from the Bank of America report itself rather than from a tradable contract. On the platforms, the practical signal is liquidity concentration: when one venue absorbs the bulk of regulated weekly volume, its odds tend to move first and carry tighter spreads. As of early June 2026 there is no widely tracked contract specifically pricing "Kalshi keeps 91% share through year-end," so any probability on that question is an estimate. Estimated odds that Kalshi remains the dominant regulated U.S. venue (above 70% share) through the end of 2026: roughly 75-85%, given its current lead and volume momentum.
Scenarios and probabilities
- Base scenario: Kalshi retains a dominant regulated-market share in the 80-91% range through 2026 as weekly volume stays elevated; Crypto.com holds its edge over Polymarket in this specific data set. Estimated probability: ~60%.
- Bull scenario: Kalshi extends past 91% as regulated flow consolidates, listings broaden, and rivals lose ground in U.S.-regulated volume. Estimated probability: ~20%.
- Bear scenario: Polymarket's valuation momentum, new regulatory clarity, or a Crypto.com push erodes Kalshi's lead back toward 70-80%. Estimated probability: ~20%.
Impact on prediction markets
Concentration of regulated volume on one venue usually means its prices are the reference point others arbitrage against. For cross-platform traders, that has two consequences. First, Kalshi's odds may react fastest to news, so lagging quotes elsewhere can be stale rather than "wrong." Second, market-share metrics are sensitive to definitions: "regulated U.S. volume" excludes much of Polymarket's offshore crypto-settled flow, so a 91% figure measures a specific slice, not the entire global sector. Reading it as total dominance would overstate the case.
Risks and what would invalidate this thesis
- Methodology risk: Bank of America's definition of "regulated U.S. prediction market" may exclude large pools of offshore or crypto-settled volume, inflating Kalshi's relative share.
- Single-snapshot risk: an abrupt weekly volume spike can be event-driven (a major election or sports window) and may normalize, lowering the share within weeks.
- Competitive and regulatory risk: Polymarket's $20B valuation, a U.S. re-entry, or a Crypto.com expansion could shift the rankings quickly and reverse the Crypto.com-over-Polymarket ordering.
FAQ
Does Kalshi really control 91% of the prediction market? The 91% figure, per the Bank of America report, refers to the regulated U.S. prediction market by volume — not the entire global sector, which includes offshore crypto-settled venues.
Is Crypto.com now bigger than Polymarket? In the specific data set cited by Bank of America, Crypto.com's prediction-market share exceeds Polymarket's; this is one metric and definitions vary across sources.
Why does Polymarket's $20B valuation not equal dominance? Valuation reflects investor expectations and funding, while market share here measures actual trading volume; the two can diverge sharply.
Sources
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